Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process
Several figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
