Everyday Killings in the nation Decline Over a Third During the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Data

The typical count of everyday homicides each month in the country has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to fresh government data. Nevertheless, security experts have advised that murder data might not signal enhanced national safety.

Marked Drop in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of close to 55 murders a day in last November compared with almost 87 when the President began the presidential office in September of last year. This information was shared by the head of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we have seen in these months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that in November the smallest amount of murders were registered for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Intense cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's highly military efforts to confront the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than the US. However, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security plan for an apparently steeper decline in homicides this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state stated: “We have a strategy, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The key pillars of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Greater coordination between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, security researchers cautioned that relying on murder statistics to draw a conclusion of pacification was problematic. This is particularly true given the rise in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be very good news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder data and think: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the same timeframe last year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not valid for gauging the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the desire to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month means of daily homicides was similarly concerning because it might obscure days when there were especially high numbers of killings.

“Relying on the per-day mean makes spikes of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, according to government data. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

However despite these measures, Mexico remains plagued by severe bloodshed, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-related violence. Last month there was a notable murder of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to build a picture of safety. Politically it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” the analyst remarked.