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This Sunday, the Central African Republic will conduct a crucial series of four votes, encompassing the presidency, national assembly, and municipal positions.

A Competitive Presidential Field

A field of seven contenders are competing for the presidency, among them ex-premiers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. The two were cleared to run by the high court after initial bans. Dologuélé was the runner-up in the last two elections, while Dondra briefly served under the incumbent.

Challengers' Strategy and Public Discontent

The opposition aims to tap into widespread frustration in a nation where conflict remains a daily reality. Over half a million people are internally displaced, with a similar number living as refugees in neighbouring countries.

"This represents an chance to acknowledge the remarkable recovery of the nation," said a senior UN diplomat, though he added that challenges remain.

Touadéra's Expected Victory

Despite the challenges, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former mathematics professor, is largely predicted to extend his run. He first entered politics in 2008 when named prime minister, serving until a rebel coalition toppled the government in 2013, triggering a civil war.

After a chaotic three-year interim, his perceived neutrality from the main militias fueled his second-round victory in 2016.

Election Risks and Voting Challenges

There are fears that supply-chain issues and violence could disrupt the vote, especially in the countryside. The UN stabilization force, Minusca, is providing security and logistical support that the state's crumbling infrastructure cannot manage.

Further issues involve the voter list being made available only digitally, a significant barrier in a nation with scarce online access. These irregularities have led to an electoral boycott and could, as noted by analysts, "exclude many of the population."

Stakes of a Third Term

Many residents worry that another term for Touadéra—made possible by a 2023 constitutional referendum that scrapped term limits and extended mandates—would mean expanded sway for foreign actors.

The president has relied on the Russian mercenary group Wagner for personal security, and even after its founder's death, has pushed back against calls to integrate its fighters into a new structure. Meanwhile, Rwanda has taken a different approach, focusing on commercial interests within CAR.

Claims of National Disposal

Allegations have claimed the government removed its own soldiers from a internationally financed facility to make way for a Rwandan agricultural project. A critical commentary charged the leadership of being "determined to dispose of the country bit by bit."

Despite a newly signed agreement with rebel groups offering hope of calm, the vote proceeds under a cloud of uncertainty and external competition.